Well, that was a dumpster fire.
If you missed it, here’s the full debate video and transcript.
I wrote yesterday that Trump needed to be perfect, and Kamala merely needed to show up in order to win the debate. He was far from perfect, and she outperformed expectations with help from the disgusting ABC moderators.
Trump failed to reiterate the majority of his 20 core promises to America, and using my AC/DC scorecard from yesterday, Kamala won big on style, even if Trump’s record remains stronger. I’m not sure this debate will sway anyone’s opinion, but Trump missed a golden opportunity to lock up the election last night.
Five Takeaways:
Winner: Kamala. In the “Vibes” vs. “Results” race, Kamala won the night. She did more than enough to address concerns about her competence. She was light on substance, but well-rehearsed, and she beat him up with assists from the wildly partial moderators and post-debate pundits. Trump won on substance, but the moderators and Kamala got under his skin 20 minutes in, and he was off his game for the rest of the night.
Loser: Corporate Media. It is literally impossible to hate the media enough. They are metastatic cancers that we can’t seem to irradiate as a country, but we should still try. Megyn Kelly’s takedown of the ABC moderators was FLAWLESS. They’re parasites.
Fact Checks: They were wrong on the substance and spirit of major fact checks (Abortion facts, spirit; Haitian immigrant facts, spirit; Violent crime facts, spirit). Trump’s salient points on radical late term abortion policy, immigrant takeovers of American towns and cities, and spikes in lawlessness were buried as a result.
Tone Policing: They censured Trump over the January 6 riots, and rejected his rebuttal about Nancy Pelosi’s complicity (while making no mention of the BLM or Seattle riots or urban crime waves). They asked whether it was “appropriate” for Trump to comment on Kamala’s racial identity. They needled him on whether he was rooting for Ukraine to win its war with Russia. Wildly tilted.
2020 Redux: They disputed Trump’s “fraudulent election” claims, but made no mention of the 2020 vote-by-mail normalization or lack of voter ID laws. Nor did they address the censorship industrial complex that tilted the election in Biden’s favor, or suppression of the Hunter Biden laptop story. Trump tried to parry and focus on looking forward, but they insisted on relitigating the 2020 election.
Trump’s Substance: You need Genius annotations sometimes to keep up with Trump’s ramblings, which get worse when he gets pissed.
He rants and spits venom, but it’s because he cares about the country, and legitimately hates the people destroying it. I like him for that! And can get worked up about these things myself, particularly when being gaslit or fighting low information voters.
But anger wrecks winning political messaging. What Trump actually said:Economy: “My policies rocked, which is why you copy all of them.” Trump rightly pointed out that Biden-Harris kept his tariffs in place because they worked. That domestic oil production surged because they had no choice but to allow for it once they botched Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, and Iran policy and OPEC+ cut production. That the jobs Kamala is taking credit for were “bounceback jobs” and they lied about 818,000 jobs until last month’s revisions, while allowing all job growth to go to foreign born workers at the expense of the native born workers.
Social Issues: “I don’t care about race, I want to win. I sent abortion back to the states so we can move on and focus on the economy and national security instead of wedge issues. I intervene whenever I see extreme policies (late term abortions, six week bans, and IVF crackdowns alike).” We can’t get the country back on track until we deal with the anarcho-tyranny that is migrant crime and the overwhelms of our social services. Otherwise, social issues belong to the states.
Foreign Policy: We need to end the war in Ukraine, which has caused one million deaths, $250 billion of spending (without NATO paying their fair share), and puts us on a collision course with a nuclear-armed power. We need to focus on Iran and stop letting them wreak havoc throughout the Middle East vs. rewarding them economically, creating self-inflicted chaos. We need to stop pretending that the open border isn’t our biggest national security threat, which could be solved by executive orders overnight, but Biden-Harris lie about the problems.
Bait Taker: I’m sure I wasn’t the only Trump supporter throwing my remote against the wall when he took the bait on Kamala’s comment on his “rally sizes.” He got thrown off his game after what had otherwise been a strong start. He was constantly forced to play defense, and that caused him to over index on the issue of immigrant crime vs. economic impact, and fall back on attacks vs. data points. He won the handshake and the opening demeanor. Aside from her occasional cheap smiles, Kamala won on tone and demeanor the rest of the way.
Kamala’s Scorecard: The “basement strategy” worked. The media will cover for Kamala’s ongoing evasiveness, mediocrity, and any stumbles thanks to this debate.
Activate lazy allies: As predicted, Kamala went hard at the abortion issue, but this portion of the debate felt like a draw. If anything, Taylor Swift’s post-debate endorsement and “Childless Cat Lady” signature activated more under-engaged allies than Kamala.
Celebrate converts: This was Kamala’s strongest part of the debate. She glossed over Cheney’s individual endorsement (good), and used the opportunity to highlight 200 former “Bush, McCain, Romney” Republicans who thought Trump was a disgrace, poorly tempered, and a global laughingstock. As I said, women are more likely to trust establishment converts.
Demoralize antagonists: I didn’t think Trump would lose his cool, but he did. Kamala’s more likely path to scoring points and demoralizing weakly-aligned Trump voters was to paint him as a bigot. She didn’t draw blood there, but she did make him look angry and unfocused throughout.
Crush dissent. Showing up prepared and effectively needling Trump was the best way that Kamala could have crushed dissent within her party. She didn’t do anything to shore up defections from working class Black and Hispanic men defecting to Trump, but Trump also didn’t capitalize, by neglecting to highlight the economic impact of immigration.
Trump’s Results: Trump was a completely different person before and after the 20 minute mark. He’ll remain at a structural disadvantage now for the next eight weeks as the establishment remains fully aligned against him. He needs to get back on track in activating his allies, celebrating new converts, and demoralizing his re-emboldened antagonists.
Activate lazy allies: This election will hinge on working class men: white, Black and Hispanic. Their path to activation is all about the economy, which was given shockingly little play all night. The debate kicked off with a 13 minute segment on the economy (hence Trump’s strong opening), but Trump later failed to tie immigration to economic impact, and they didn’t return to the subject the rest of the night. Inexplicable.
Celebrate converts: Trump completely whiffed on highlighting his converts, which would have played well for independents. No mention of Elon Musk and his battle with DC’s speech censors or his commitment to help with a Government Efficiency Commission,” and no mention of RFK Jr.’s endorsement and emphasis on Making America Healthy Again as part of the closing segment on Obama care. Again, inexplicable.
Demoralize antagonists: If Trump breached any of Kamala’s Blue Walls, it was likely in the Jewish community with his attacks on the Biden-Harris foreign policy failures, and her snub of Netanyahu, but he missed slam dunks around domestic anti-semitism, the Hamas radicals protesting the DNC, and her selection of Tim Walz over Josh Shapiro. He also failed to redirect the race question to co-opt Tulsi’s 2019 debate takedown, which might have helped with Black swing voters. Ugh.
Crush dissent: Trump did a good job defending his COVID and abortion policies. But I’m not sure his thankless pro-life “supporters” will rally to his aide in the numbers he needs in the states he needs them.
Trump could have put the election away. Instead, it’s going to be a photo finish.
It’s incredible to me that Kamala’s campaign has called for another debate. Why give Trump a mulligan? If he gets it, he should finish the job he started during the Biden debate, and properly dismantle Kamala, her record, and her platform.
In the meantime, I’d love to see the Trump campaign do something unique: have surrogates like Vivek, J.D. Vance, RFK Jr. and others, “break down the game film,” and give a blow by blow of the performance, and the substance behind it. It would be a good way to spin the results, and highlight what Trump missed himself.